AUGUST 2026 MARKET UPDATE: PHOENIX, SCOTTSDALE & PARADISE VALLEY
July 2026 Data | The Pontikas Team | Source: RPR/ARMLS
Happy August, friends! Summer is winding down here in the Valley — school is back in session, the heat is (slowly) becoming more tolerable, and the real estate market is doing what it always does this time of year: taking a breath before fall activity picks back up. The July numbers are in, and I want to give you an honest read on what they're telling us — including one data point that I think every seller in this market needs to hear.
THE NUMBER EVERY SELLER NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND
ARMLS released their monthly statistics commentary this week, and one finding jumped out at me as particularly important for anyone thinking about listing their home. Here it is, straight from the data:
In July 2026, 75% of single-family homes in Greater Phoenix sold below their original list price. Only 12% sold above list, and 14% sold at list.
Let that sink in for a moment. Three out of four homes are selling for less than the seller originally hoped. And this isn't a new trend — it's almost identical to July 2025, when 76% sold below list. The market has been telling sellers this story consistently for over a year, and yet overpricing remains one of the most common mistakes I see.
Here's the nuance though: the homes selling above list aren't random. About 40% of those above-list sales were under $400,000, where buyers are still competing for attainable, well-priced homes. And those sales were concentrated in Phoenix, San Tan Valley, Surprise, and Mesa. So yes, competitive pockets exist — but they're specific, and they require accurate pricing to access them.
The takeaway for sellers is this: pricing is not about optimism. It's about strategy. A listing that starts too high almost always needs a reduction before buyers respond — and those days on market accumulate, which makes buyers wonder what's wrong with the home. Getting the price right from day one is the single most important thing you can do.
With that as our backdrop, here's what the July data shows across our three markets:
PHOENIX: SUMMER SETTLING IN
Phoenix's July numbers reflect the seasonal reality of selling in the desert in summer. The median sales price came in at $469,900 — down 3.11% from last month, though it's worth noting that year-to-date, Phoenix median prices are actually up about 1% compared to 2025. Days on market jumped to 49 days, up 25.64% from June — which sounds alarming until you remember that this is exactly what July does every year. Summer holiday slowdowns, heat, and back-to-school transitions all compress buyer activity.
Active listings declined to 3,632, down 2.3%, and months of inventory held essentially flat at 3.99 — barely any change month-over-month. The market-type indicator still sits on the seller's side of balanced, which the broader Phoenix REALTORS data confirms: Maricopa County's inventory is at just 3.4 months through July, down 5.3% from last year.
And here's the year-over-year number that puts summer in perspective: metro Phoenix closed home sales are up 5.1% compared to the first seven months of 2025. The market is not falling apart — it's just seasonal.
What I keep coming back to for Phoenix specifically is the hyperlocal reality. Overall numbers look reasonable, but the ARMLS data on list price outcomes tells a more nuanced story. Phoenix was actually one of the markets with the highest concentration of above-list sales — but those were almost exclusively in the under $400K range. Above that threshold, buyers have leverage, and sellers who start too high are paying the price in sitting time and eventual reductions.
For Phoenix sellers: The seasonal dip in July is normal and expected. What's not normal is overpricing into a market where 75% of homes are selling below list. Get your pricing right from day one, make sure your home shows its absolute best, and think seriously about timing your launch for late August or September when buyer activity traditionally picks back up.
For Phoenix buyers: You have room to negotiate in most price ranges above $400K. Work with your agent to understand what homes are actually closing for — not what they're listed at. The gap between those two numbers is where your opportunity lives.
SCOTTSDALE: SUMMER SLOWDOWN WITH STRONG BONES
Scottsdale's July numbers show the same seasonal pattern, amplified by the higher price point. The median sales price came in at $1.047 million — down 8.11% from June. Before you react to that number, context matters: month-to-month swings in Scottsdale are inherently larger because the pool of transactions is smaller and individual sales move the needle more. Year-to-date, Scottsdale closed sales are up 13.5% compared to 2025, and the year-to-date median price has risen 4.1% to $1.26 million. That's a genuinely strong performance.
Active listings dropped 10% to 1,786 — a meaningful contraction. Months of inventory fell 7.62% to 4.12 months, which is now 19% below where it was a year ago. That sustained, year-over-year inventory decline is the most important structural story in Scottsdale right now. Pending sales in Scottsdale grew 8.2% year-over-year — buyers are engaged and contracts are being written.
Days on market rose to 68 days, which reflects both the summer pace and the reality that Scottsdale buyers at the million-dollar-plus level take more time to make decisions. This is appropriate and expected. The market-type indicator sits right at the boundary between seller's and balanced — which is exactly where a healthy premium market should be.
The ARMLS data on above-list pricing is worth applying here too. At the $1M+ level, the vast majority of homes are selling below original list. Scottsdale sellers who price with discipline and present their homes beautifully are getting deals done. Those who start aspirationally and hope the market meets them are waiting much longer.
For Scottsdale sellers: The year-over-year picture is genuinely encouraging — more sales, higher prices, tighter inventory. But July's month-over-month numbers are a reminder that summer is summer. If your home has been sitting, a pricing conversation may be overdue. If you're preparing to list, late August or September could be a powerful launch window.
For Scottsdale buyers: Inventory is tighter than it was a year ago, and pending sales are up. This market is not softening — it's seasonal. If you find the right home, don't assume you have unlimited time to decide.
PARADISE VALLEY: THE SUMMER COMPRESSION EFFECT IS REAL
Paradise Valley continues to be the most fascinating market to watch this summer, and July delivered exactly what the data has been predicting. The median sales price jumped to $4.299 million — up 20.08% from last month. Active listings collapsed to just 166 homes, down 16.6% in a single month. Months of inventory dropped 13.86% to 5.53 months.
I want to be direct about what's driving those numbers, because they deserve honest context. The price jump in Paradise Valley is not primarily a reflection of demand surging — it's a reflection of supply collapsing. When the pool of active listings shrinks by 17% in one month and only the most exceptional homes are transacting, the prices of those closings naturally skew higher. This is the summer compression effect I've been describing for the past two months, and it's now fully in motion.
Days on market rose to 69 days — up 27.78% — which tells you buyers at this level are being deliberate and thoughtful. At $4M+, that's entirely appropriate. The sold-to-list ratio in the detailed ARMLS data for this tier reflects buyers negotiating meaningfully. The market-type indicator has moved to balanced, which matches the reality on the ground.
The deeper story here is what happens next. Last year, this exact pattern — summer listing cancellations driving supply down faster than demand — pushed Paradise Valley from balanced to the #1 seller's market in Greater Phoenix by August. We are watching to see if that pattern repeats. With only 166 active listings, any modest uptick in buyer demand will be felt quickly.
For Paradise Valley sellers: If you are active on the market right now, you are one of very few. Your competition has largely gone dark. This is your moment to stand out. Homes that are exceptional, priced within reason, and marketed well have a real window of opportunity through August and into September.
For Paradise Valley buyers: The negotiating environment exists — sold-to-list ratios give you some room — but don't confuse low volume for low demand. When the right property comes up, move with intention. The best homes here don't sit forever.
LOOKING AHEAD: THE FALL WINDOW
Here's the big picture heading into August and September: the seasonal summer slowdown is real, it's normal, and it almost always reverses. Last year, a modest rate dip from 6.6% to 6.1% between August and September triggered a meaningful spike in buyer contract activity. Mortgage rates are currently hovering around 6.5–6.7%, and any meaningful movement downward could have a similar effect this year.
Phoenix REALTORS board president Sammy Glassman put it well: "Buyers can take a little more time to make decisions, while sellers who price their homes well are in the best position to attract serious offers sooner." That's exactly right. The sellers who have done their homework on pricing — and the buyers who have done their homework on what homes are actually closing for — are the ones who will win this fall.
As always, I'm here to help you make sense of what these numbers mean for your specific home, your specific neighborhood, and your specific goals. This is never a one-size-fits-all market, and the data is only useful when it's applied to your situation.
Let's connect.
— Debbie Pontikas, The Pontikas Team
Phoenix & Scottsdale, AZ | pontikasteam.com | @DebbiePontikasRealtor
Source: RPR/ARMLS. Numbers deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
