Happy June! As summer settles in across the Valley, I'm sharing the latest market data straight from the numbers — broken down by market so you get a true picture of what's happening in the areas that matter most to my clients. May 2026 tells three distinct stories depending on where you're looking, and I think you'll find the details both interesting and actionable.
PHOENIX: Moving Faster, Inventory Ticking Up
Phoenix continues to be the most active and accessible market in the metro. In May, the median sales price for single-family homes came in at $476,000 — a modest 1.86% dip month-over-month, but one that reflects a healthy repricing rather than any alarm. What's encouraging is how quickly homes are moving: days on market dropped to just 35 days, down 2.78% from the prior month. That's a fast-moving market by any measure.
Active listings in Phoenix grew to 3,899, up 4.6% month-over-month, and months of inventory edged up to 4.13 months — a 6.17% increase. More inventory giving buyers more choices is actually healthy for long-term market stability. On the market-type spectrum, Phoenix is sitting on the seller's side of balanced, meaning well-priced homes are still moving with purpose.
The takeaway for Phoenix buyers: More options are coming online, but don't sleep on well-priced homes — 35 days on market means the good ones still go quickly.
The takeaway for Phoenix sellers: Your market is active. Price it right from day one and you'll see results fast. Overpricing is the only real risk right now.
SCOTTSDALE: Balanced and Holding Firm
Scottsdale's single-family market showed remarkable price stability in May. The median sales price held steady at $1.075 million — no change month-over-month — which speaks to the resilience and depth of demand in this market even as conditions have normalized from the frenzied pace of prior years.
Active listings declined 3.9% to 2,336, and months of inventory ticked down 3.11% to 5.3 months — both moving in a direction that supports price stability heading into the summer. Days on market came in at 49 days, up just slightly (2.08%), meaning homes are still moving at a healthy pace for this price tier.
The market-type indicator places Scottsdale squarely in balanced territory, nudging toward the seller's side — exactly where a healthy, premium market should be. Buyers have options and reasonable negotiating room. Sellers can still command strong prices with the right presentation and strategy.
The takeaway for Scottsdale buyers: This is a fair market. You have time to be thoughtful, conduct due diligence, and negotiate — but don't expect significant discounts on well-positioned homes. $1.075M is holding as the floor.
The takeaway for Scottsdale sellers: Inventory is actually declining — that's working in your favor. Pricing at market value (not above it) is the formula for success right now.
PARADISE VALLEY: Luxury Prices Surge as Inventory Contracts
Paradise Valley is telling the most dramatic story of the month, and it's one I've been watching closely. Despite sitting on the buyer's side of the market-type spectrum, the price data is stunning: the median sales price jumped to $4.115 million — up 24.7% month-over-month. That's a significant move driven by the caliber of homes that closed in May and by a meaningful contraction in available supply.
Active listings fell 8.0% to just 253 homes, and months of inventory dropped 5.01% to 8.16 months. As I've noted in prior updates, this is a pattern we see each summer — as temperatures climb, luxury sellers pull listings, supply contracts, and the remaining active sellers suddenly face far less competition. Days on market rose to 64 days, reflecting the longer decision timeline that ultra-luxury buyers naturally take, but that metric doesn't tell the full price story.
This is exactly the dynamic the Cromford Report has described in prior summers: when Paradise Valley supply contracts faster than demand, the market can flip to a seller's advantage even while the market-type indicator still reads buyer-leaning. Watch this space over June and July.
The takeaway for Paradise Valley buyers: Act with intention. Supply is contracting and the highest-quality homes are commanding premium prices. This summer window may offer some negotiating opportunity on properties that have been sitting, but don't expect the entire market to soften.
The takeaway for Paradise Valley sellers: If you've been on the fence about staying active through the summer, the May data is encouraging. Sellers who stay the course as competitors pull listings often find themselves in a stronger position by August.
MORTGAGE RATES: In the Mid-6s, Expected to Hold
On the rate front, Freddie Mac's most recent weekly average put the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.48% as of June 4 — down meaningfully from 6.85% a year ago. Rates have moved upward from the 5.75% low we saw briefly in early spring, largely driven by geopolitical factors and oil price pressures. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to remain in the 6.3–6.5% range through the end of 2026, with Fannie Mae projecting a potential dip to around 6.3% by year-end. No dramatic moves expected — but steady improvement is on the horizon.
Real estate in Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley is never a one-size-fits-all story. Every neighborhood, every price point, every home has its own set of dynamics. That's why I'm here — to make sure you have the local insight you need to make confident decisions.
Whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or simply want to know what your home is worth in today's market, I'd love to connect.
Source: RPR. Numbers deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
